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Analysis of material by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Posted by wicked blu Wednesday, September 23, 2009

By Dr. Russell Blaylock. (September 5, 2009)

span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Critical Observations:

  • Doctor visits for flu are down from the level in April
  • Total flu hospitalizations are similar or lower than for seasonal flu (yearly flu)
  • The number of death secondary to flu and pneumonia is unchanged from yearly rate.
  • Only two states are reporting widespread infections -- Georgia and Alaska. Other states report only regional or sporadic activity, meaning it’s not very contagious.
  • There is no evidence that the virus has mutated at all anywhere in the world
  • The virus remains susceptible to the drugs Tamiflu and Relenza.
  • Only 43,771 cases have been reported in the United States. Because of poor reporting the CDC estimates that true numbers indicate that one million have been infected. Many people did not get sick enough to go to a doctor. Likewise, not all people are tested who go to a doctor.
  • Of these 5,011 have been hospitalized and 302 have died.

Death Rates From the H1N1 Flu

If we use the 43,771 figure and 302 deaths that means the death rate is 0.6 percent, an extremely low death rate for any flu.

The percentage of hospitalized patients who died was 6 percent, again a very low incidence of death.

Since the CDC estimates that one million have been infected, we must recalculate death rates. Using this more accurate figure, the death rate is in truth 0.03 percent, which means 99.97percent will not die from this flu. Your chances of dying are incredibly low.

Age and Death Rates

We hear a lot about the unusual age distribution with this virus, especially as regards death rates, with the young being more affected than, as with seasonal flu, the elderly (90% of deaths are usually among those greater than 65 years old).

The risks of becoming infected are as follows:
Ages 5 to 24 y/o--------26.7 per 100,000 (0.027%)
Ages 0 to 4 y/o ---------22.9 per 100,000 (0.023%)
Ages 25 to 49-----------6.97 per 100,000 (0.0069%)
Ages 50 to 64 y/o------3.9 per 100,000 (0.0039)
Over 65 y/o-------------1.3 per 1000,000 (0.00013%)

And the risk of needing to be hospitalized are:
Ages 0 to 4 y/o---------0.0045%
Ages 5 to 24 y/o--------0.0021%
Ages 25 to 45 y/o------0.0011%
Over 65 y/o-------------0.0017%

This indicates that for all age groups, the risk of being hospitalized are far less than 1 percent and well over 99 percent of people will not need hospitalization.

This explains why this infection is being downplayed by the virologists themselves, the ones who know most about the dangers of viruses.

The distributions of death also vary considerably by age. Below is the distribution of deaths according to age.

Ages 25-49 y/o---------41%
Ages 50 to 64 y/o-----24%
Ages 5 to 24 y/o------16%
Over age 65 y/o------- 9%
Ages 0 to 4 y/o-------- 2%

So, we see that the greatest death rates in the extremely small fraction that die are between ages 25 to 49 and 65 percent are between ages 25 to 64.

The least likely to die are babies up to age 4 years, yet they are targeted for vaccination and as we see from the above data, children below age 2 years get absolutely no protection from the flu vaccines.

Analysis of the New Government Projections to the Media

If we analyzed it according to the worst case scenario released by the government we see far lower figures than being projected:

They say 150 million Americans will be infected. That is 150 X as many as now infected, and represents a much larger figure than now estimated with a 6 to 6.5 percent of a localized population.

For the United States itself with a population slightly over 300 million, their figures indicate a 50 percent infection rate. There is nothing to indicate such a high infectivity rate from the past 7 months of analysis.

It should also be appreciated that the infections will not occur all at once, but will slowly evolve, as we have seen thus far, meaning that at any one time a much smaller amount of Americans will be infected -- which also reduces the numbers who will require hospitalizations at any one time, and who will need ICU care.

As far as the number that will need hospitalization, the government now says there will be 1.8 million people hospitalized, of which 300,000 may need ICU treatment.

If we use the existing data we see that the numbers are quite different. At the time the data was taken, 303 people out of one million infected died and 5,011 needed hospitalization. This means a projected hospitalization incidence of 750,000 and a death rate of 45,000 deaths. Remember, this is using their data applied to the outrageously high figure of 50% of the population being infected -- that is, 150 million people.

If the infection rate is 6 percent, as all the studies have shown thus far, we see much smaller numbers.

Instead of 150 million infected we see 18 million infected. Using these more realistic figures we can estimate a hospitalization rate of 90,000 and a projected death incidence of 5436.

Again, it is important to keep in mind that the infections will be evolving and not all at once as both sets of figures seem to imply. If we spread this over several months and waves of the infection, we see that at any one time the hospitalizations will be a much smaller number, as will the deaths.

Thus far, there have been nationwide 2,000 hospitalizations a month and 99 deaths a month.

Certainly the hospitals in the United States can handle the increase. In the United States we have 5,759 hospitals containing 955,000 beds and 70,000 ICU beds. Most hospitalized people will not require intensive care. Most are suffering from dehydration and only required IV fluid infusion.

It should also be appreciated that most pediatric deaths and elderly deaths will occur early in the epidemic because the chronically ill and immune suppressed will become infected early. Therefore one would expect the deaths to rise initially and then fall as the infection spreads as we see from this graph:



















In this chart we see that the hospitalization rates are actually lower for the swine flu than in previous seasons.














In this graph we see that the hospitalization rates were either lower or barely above the seasonal flu admissions in the previous two years.



















We can see from the CDC’s own data that the hospitalization rates and death rates are no higher, in fact they are significantly lower, than the previous two to three flu seasons.

It is obvious that the government is using “scare tactics” to promote vaccine use in the United States and that the pharmaceutical makers of vaccines are in bed with these officials.

The public should be outraged.

Why Do Some Die From Such a Mild Virus?

As stated by the virologists, this virus is no more a danger than the seasonal virus that visits each year and actually seems to be much weaker.

One may also note from the CDC’s own data, the previous nonsense about 36,000 dying from the seasonal flu every year is pure fiction. We have had a little over 400 deaths nationwide over the past 5 months, nowhere near the 36,000 figure screamed from the airwaves and our TV sets, yet the public is in a state of panic.

So, why are some dying from this virus?

What is little understood by the general public is that the only reason people die from the flu is that they have either an immune suppressing chronic illness, such as diabetes, direct immune dysfunction, dietary deficiencies of critical immune-supporting nutrients, chronic pulmonary disease, heart disease or cancer.

Smoking powerfully suppresses immunity as well as damages lungs, and we know that smokers are much more likely to suffer complications and die than non-smokers.

Excess dietary omega-6 fats (corn, safflower, sunflower, soybean, peanut and canola oils) also severely weaken immunity. The EPA component of omega-3 oils also powerfully suppresses immunity.

A study by the CDC found that 32 percent of children dying from H1N1 flu had asthma, when the incidence of asthma in the general population was 8 percent. Two thirds of the children who died had neurological disorders, such as seizures and cerebral palsy.

So, the vast majority of children who are dying have one of a number of chronic health conditions, yet the media gives us the impression that perfectly healthy children are dying.

A recent study of why so many died during the 1918 flu pandemic found that most of the deaths were secondary to bacterial pneumonia and not the flu virus itself. In 1918 hospitals had little to offer a sick patient -- there were no antibiotics, other than sulfur drugs, no IV fluids and no respirators -- all they could offer was a warm bed and aspirin.

It was also disclosed that the number of flu-related deaths among children was lower this year than the previous two years.

What are the Virologists Saying?

Virologists are scientists who study viruses -- their classification, their genetics, methods of spread and their ability to cause disease. No one knows more about this virus than the virologists.

The British science magazine, The New Scientist, recently polled 60 virologists to get their opinion. These are the results of specific questions:

Will the virulent version of the virus appear?

Extremely likely-----------------none
Likely----------------------------5
A 50/50 chance----------------- 14
Possible-------------------------- 38
Not at all--------------------------3

What the virologists are doing personally?

Stock Tamiflu or Relinza-----------------14
Stock above plus antibiotics------------- 6
Stock food, water and power source----5
Get pneumococcal vaccine---------------3
Nothing------------------------------------ 30
Hand washing, mask, etc--------------- 3

Notice there was no mention of taking the swine flu vaccine.

Behind the push to vaccinate the entire population are the pharmaceutical makers of the vaccines, who are working in conjunction with the government to make the vaccine mandatory.

Homeland security and FEMA are pushing for forced vaccinations and the medical experts, virologists and epidemiologists are calling for calm and resorting to voluntary vaccination only. The former have links with the vaccine manufacturers via political contacts. A great deal of money will be made by the manufacturers, should forced vaccinations be mandated.

Will This Vaccine Be Tested?

According to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, 5 tests are planned. It is not clear as to the use of the squalene adjuvants, ASO3 and MF-59.

Because of concerns raised, the FDA is now hedging. Independent studies of squalene used as a vaccine adjuvant indicates that it is associated with a very high incidence of autoimmune diseases, such as an MS-like neurological syndrome, rheumatoid joint disease and especially Lupus.

The developer of MF-59 is Chiron pharmaceuticals, which was purchased by Novartis pharmaceutical company, who will be the main supplier of the swine flu vaccine for the world. According to Dr. Fauci, testing in both children and adults will be without this adjuvant and he admits that we have no data on the safety in children.(See Nature Vol 460/30 July 2009, p 562 for the interview.)

There are 5 tests scheduled for safety before mass vaccinations will resume. I looked up on clinicaltrials.gov the actual studies being done. It is instructive to note that the only studies actually being done do not contain any adjuvant (the immune booster) either for babies or adults. Yet, when the mass vaccinations begin, the vaccines will have adjuvant added, possibly squalene.

The real irony here is that this is the same bait and switch game they played in the 1976 swine flu vaccine disaster.

They tested one vaccine and gave a different one during the mass vaccinations.

Here we go again. Over 500 people were paralyzed with Guillain Barre disorder. The incidence was much higher, because it was not a reportable disease. And over 300 people died, which is also a very low figure.

Dr. Fauci admits that they have no idea what will happen when they mix the three viruses from the vaccines together or when they are given sequentially. When he was asked if the results of the studies would be reviewed by the health authorities, he answered, “yes, except for those done by the Novartis company.”

He justified this secrecy by saying that Norvartis had a very advanced testing system, which was done “in-house” -- that is, in secrecy.

It is also important to appreciate that this vaccine has been fast-tracked, meaning that many of the usual safety precautions used to prevent contamination of the vaccines will be overlooked by the regulatory agencies.

According to a number of studies, vaccine contamination is widespread, with vaccines containing pestivirus, mycoplasma, viral fragments, DNA fragments and bacterial components, all of which can produce chronic systemic disorders, cancer, neurologic diseases and even slow brain degeneration.


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